October 12, 2016

The Countdown to Nuclear War Has Begun

Daily Mail Online: Putin Orders Overseas Officials to Send Relatives Home

It is 6 a.m. here in Tokyo. I have not had breakfast yet, nor have I had even a single cup of coffee. I turned on my computer to open Facebook and see how my friends around the world are doing. I found the article above in my timeline, posted via Rush Limbaugh by one of my ultra-conservative friends.

I am faint and nauseous as I type this. During my time in the Army I wound up doing some work that I was not authorized to even see, but my lieutenant was worthless and he wanted to look good for the Colonel, so he assigned me a task that he could not trust anyone else to work on: plotting the damage radii of every warhead in the Russian and American nuclear arsenals. I had to do some homework, read up on nuclear strategies, find out when and how nuclear arms fit into an overall strategic plan, and come up with a response to a nuclear first strike by the Soviet Union. Routine, run-of-the-mill stuff for anyone who had been to Officer Candidate School, but all new information for me with nothing more than a high school diploma and a year of technical school under my belt. It was a very eye-opening experience.

There are stages one must pass through if they expect their nation to survive a global thermonuclear war. An enemy can watch and if they see those stages taking place, they know ahead of time what you are preparing. The first stage involves setting in place food, water, toiletries, medical supplies, blankets, tents, clothing, and other necessities. You have to predict how many survivors there will be and place enough daily supplies in secure facilities to get those survivors through the first month after an attack. The second stage involves training your people how to react to news a nuclear strike has been launched and is inbound. Flight time for a land-based ICBM from ignition to impact is 27-42 minutes depending on where it is launched from and where the target is. If your people are prepared and know ahead of time where to go to be safe, half an hour is more than enough time to get them into the shelters you have pre-stocked with one month worth of supplies. Unfortunately, a submarine launched missile (SLBM) has a much shorter flight time, under twenty minutes and possibly as little as five depending on where the submarine is and where the target is. About a week ago Russia held an inland civil defense exercise for around 40 million people. They did not involve coastal communities because they knew coastal communities could not possibly react in time to save themselves. This is one of the tragic realities of nuclear war. Certain places, like New York City, Washington D.C., Charleston, San Diego, and San Francisco, will be radioactive dust piles before anyone even realizes what has happened. It does not matter how well or how little they prepare, coastal cities simply cannot be saved.

Once your population has been educated and supplies set in place, then you can move shorter range armaments into place. These armaments include resources such as fast deploying short-range bombers, short-range tactical missiles, and nuclear warheads for large bore field artillery. Russia moved these items into place a few days ago. At least one batch, some missiles moved to the land border with Poland, happened to make the daily news. This was probably not an accident. This was Putin sending a very clear message to Obama. Unfortunately, the American response was to send John Kerry to the UN recommending that Putin be tried for war crimes because of the bombing of civilian areas in Aleppo. Naturally, Putin saw this as an escalation. Obama probably refuses to believe that Putin will actually launch his bombs and missiles. Obama assumed Putin was bluffing and sending John Kerry to the UN was his way of calling Putin's bluff. Sadly, at this point, I am certain Putin was not bluffing.

Children are the future. This is an undeniable reality. If a nation is going to survive a nuclear war, then the children must survive. Children need their mothers to nurture them and to teach them how to be adults. Therefore, the very last step before hitting the big red button is to call home all of the dependents of overseas personnel and insure they are safely positioned near the pre-stocked shelters. Men working in diplomatic missions are far more willing to be sacrificial lambs if they know their families will be safe. This morning, Putin is calling home the wives and children. Throughout the half-century long Cold War, no one ever reached the stage of calling home the wives and children. This was always one of the key indicators to Cold War leaders that some small chance at negotiation remained. For the first time in history, we have passed that stage.

It takes ten days to insure everyone makes it home. No more, no less. If you don't mind sacrificing a few, five days is enough to insure families of all the most important elites have time to make it home. Back in August (Brian's Meandering Mind: War is Coming) when I first noticed this process unfolding I made a few assumptions about how the strategy would unfold. The strategy I outlined in August insures maximum survivability for the people of Russia and China because it diverts American attention long enough to prevent them from having time to prepare a major counter-attack. Believe it or not, unlike during the Cold War, nowadays it would take the United States at least 72 hours to be prepared to launch a second strike in response to a Russian first strike. Depending on certain conditions I no longer have enough facts to confirm, a counter-attack might actually be impossible because by the time it could be prepared Russia will have had time to assess the effectiveness of their first strike and decide if a second wave of attacks is necessary. If certain systems have been allowed to fall far enough behind, if certain personnel have not been kept current through training and practice, if certain materials have been taken offline and moved to warehouses, then it could take five full days to prepare a counter-attack. Five days is more than enough time for Russia to launch a second, final wave of attacks. At that point the only decision left will be whether or not to launch a land invasion.

I don't know about you, but I have accepted the simple truth that it is entirely possible I have five days left to live. My home here in Tokyo is dead center between a pair of priority one targets, both well within reach of an SLBM. If Putin actually does push his big red button, I will not even have time to post a Tweet, let alone write up a blog post.

I do hope I am simply paranoid. I guess I'll find out soon enough.

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